2025 NANP Modeling Workshop – Ira Parsons

Um, as you are ready, there's going to be scattered throughout the presentation . I have some QR codes to a Gitbook online . Um, as we get to the second twothirds of the presentation today , that's where we'l we'll find the hands-on portion of of the workshop here. Um, so we'll be able to follow along with code and hopefully kind of get get a better feeling for what's going on with the data in these fitting these sort of statistical models in this fashion . And so um you know as though please go ahead and get that loaded up and set your your R studio and R environment up and that'll greatly increase the efficiency and the effectiveness of of the second part of this uh workshop I think . Um, with that being the really the primary thrust of of what I'm, you know, talking about or thinking about here today is is, you know, as scientists , our goal is really to um util apply the scientific method to problems . And the end result of that is is that we have to have a way to demonstrate to others who even maybe non-scientist how we know what we know and probability. Thomas Bae was a priest and a mathematician in the 17th c century and he invented what or wrote about in his memoirs what we know at now as Baze theory and there's been a number of other people who've really sort of made this popular and applied this to some approaches that we'll get into over time but he actually didn't even become famous for this theory that he's known for well in his lifetime it was found by his friend in his writings after he passed way . But it really came into light with the first , you know, modern, we might say, application of base theory was by this guy, um, you know, Tom, Alex Turring , who really used Beijian hypothesis in order to decode