Expect US 10-Year Yield To Decline To 4% By End Of 2025: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley | CNBC TV18

Morgan Stanley sees a serious growth slowdown due to the tariffs. It expects US growth to slow from 2 and a half% in 2024 to 1% in 2025. Global growth is expected to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2025. Asia's from 4.6 to 4.3 as the table is indicating. And India's growth is expected to slow from 6.7%. This is calendar. Okay, calendar 2024 26.2% in calendar 2025. Now what does this mean to inflation, interest rates, uh yields, dollar, rupee, I have with me Chetan Aya, the chief Asia economist for Morgan Stanley joining us from the sidelines of their conference. Uh good morning Chayan. Thank you very much indeed for your time. Uh well let me start with my India bias. The latest GDP numbers were stronger than expected. We uh uh it it beat our poll even in a full year basis. So we were our poll said 6.3 the numbers come at 6.5. Does that enthuse you a bit that India may do better than the 6.2 you have forecast for the current year? Yeah I think it it it's possible but look I know the GDP numbers were um a bit stronger but if you look at it adjusted for the indirect uh tax effect then the number was 6.8. So I think the the underlying number was less robust than the headline number but nevertheless I think it's it's definitely uh indicating that India is at least having a starting point before the tariff effect takes in uh which is it's much stronger than um you know in fact everybody in the rest of the world as well. Okay. So you it it's possible that our FY I mean yours is a calendar forecast. Will the FY forecast have an upward bias? Is is there a chance it'll be upped? Well, I think at this point of time we are saying that the risks are like balanced. Uh you know because you know from a global perspective you have this uh tariff uncertainty. Um and you know our global team thinks that there are downside risk to that global view which uh lends some downside risk to India numbers as well but at the same time the India specific factors i.e that policy support has been great as you saw March number for both uh central and state government for capex were extremely strong. So the starting point for India is uh from the policy support such that you you could have that downside risk being balanced by the domestic factors. So at this point of time lad we are still maintaining our base case um growth numbers for India. Okay.