ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - How To Use Bearish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis

welcome back folks this is lesson 4.2 continuing our teaching on applying seasonal tendencies to higher time frame analysis okay we'll be highlighting our topic of seasonals with a deeper focus on fair seasonals and higher time frame analysis and our market of study for this teaching is going to be the new zealand dollar or kiwi okay and when we looked at lesson 4.1 we we looked at the canadian dollar and we noticed that while the seasonal tendencies that i'm sharing here there 's seasonal tendencies with the utilization of the futures that we're using the seasonal tenancy it's important to understand that the seasonal tenancy may if it's bullish for the seasonal tendency chart perfect pip to point ratio of uh movement in both the futures and the foreign exchange market there's going to be a slight dis difference between the two but by far and large you're going to see that they generally move in the same direction so if we're going to look at this with a sober mind and understand that yes there are opportunities to be a seller in kiwi there's high probability conditions certain times of the year where it it positions itself for an opportunity to sell off with a great deal of tendency to do so seasonally and historically but we're going to focus on how we can use these bearish ideas to get us in sync with a long-term bullish quarterly shift now you're probably saying wait a minute michael you're coloring outside the lines we're supposed to be talking about bearish seasonal tendencies yes teaching is really how to use bearish seasonal tendencies not just myopically and only focus on just being a short seller we got to be able to understand that that short selling opportunity may be leading us to a quarterly move on so a decline while could be traded we have to be mindful that there's certain times of the year when the kiwi has a predisposed nature to go higher so let's take a look at a few examples in here there's obviously this one i like is uh mid february to mid march really significant uh time point where you can see there's a really nice movement between the red and the blue line that means the 19 year seasonal tendency in the 15 year seasonal tendency and again i'm going to remind you that it's taking 19 year s worth of price action year after year what did these months deliver in terms of price and you can see here the mid february to mid-march time period both the red and the blue lines and again i'll remind you here that the 19-year is the blue and the 15-year is the red and what it is is a compiling of 19 years worth of data showing the historical movement of the march delivery contract