Brace Yourself.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has a very specific definition of what qualifies as an asset bubble. It requires three conditions. First, the asset needs to rise by more than 100% over a 2-year period. Second, it needs to outperform the broader market by at least 100% over that same period. And third, it needs to deliver a 5-year return of over 50%. If we look at railways in the 1840s, the Dow Jones in the 1920s, or Japan's stock market in the 1980s, each of these market meltups met these three conditions, officially being classified as a bubble. In each case, the bubble eventually burst, leading to some of the most painful economic downturns in financial history, including the Great Depression. Today, the consensus in the mainstream media is that we are in the middle of a tech bubble. But when we apply the same definition we just walked through on the NASDAQ 100, it does not meet these three conditions. It has only risen by 45% in the last two years. It's only outperformed the S&P 500 by 3% and it's gained at 90% in the last 5 years. So only one out of the three boxes has been ticked. This is very different, for example, to the dot bubble where the NASDAQ 100 ticked all three categories. If we look at the path of semiconductor stocks over the last few years, however, we do see that they're a very close match to the price action of the NASDAQ 100 during the.com bubble. Semiconductor stocks have risen by 110% over the last 2 years. They've gained 275% over the last 5 years, and they've outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 100% over the last 2 years. So, meeting all of the three factors for bubble. Now, semiconductor stocks are still a very small part of the economy compared to what tech was in 1999. But it's what the sector represents that is important. Semiconductor stocks sit at the center of the AI infrastructure buildout. Data centers, cloud computing, large language models, they all rely on one thing first, semiconductor chips. And if these are in a bubble, it probably means that everything associated with them is also in a bubble. Now, most people understand this, but the amount of noise and conflicting opinions that we hear regarding this topic is extreme. Our job is to digest all of the data to give you a clear picture of what is truly happening. So, ideally, you can make better decisions. This is the research that we personally use to find the best performing assets, sectors, and stocks, regardless of the type of macroeconomic situation we find ourselves in. You can watch an overview of our 2026 investment strategy for free in the description below if you want to understand how this research actually translates into positioning on the stock market.